Conspiracy Theories? They are starting to sound a lot more feasable.
I listened to this interview with George Green yesterday and it made me take a look at some of the factors in it.
What this interview says is that the market will crash in Sept 2008. The US Governments Fiscal year end is September 30, 2008. This is when, on paper, it will become clear that the US Government is in serious trouble because of all the covering it has had to do of the credit crisis, through loans like the one to Bear Sterns of $200 Billion and covering failing banks recently, and backing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In this case investors would stop buying US Government bonds which usually have a AAA rating, and are typically looked at as the lowest risk investment. This factor is what ties in with my prior post. the review of what is really risky and what is not. This has totally changed in the last few years. It is interesting that the two biggest market crashes, 1929 and 1987 were in October, following the US Fiscal Year end. This is not a guarantee, but it is a lot more likely now then before.
The George Green interview follows with my earlier post about the “The Credit Crisis”. I hope that it’s not true but if it is then a few things will become important very quick:
Personal possession of the following Commodities, in order of importance, roughly:
-Clean Water
-Food with long shelf life (Dehydrated, Canned).
-Medicine & First Aid
-Gasoline, Propane, Batteries, Fire (Wood, Lighters, Lighter Fluid, Matches).
-Small denomination Silver and Gold
-Firearms and Ammo
I’m not a doomsayer. I’m just saying it sure wouldn’t hurt to have the above around in case. The recent slew of banks failing isn’t reassuring to me. Banks failing hasn’t happened, like this, since the 1980s and thats when we had one of our biggest market crashes. None of the above commodities will go down in value significantly ever, so be reassured that even if nothing happens they are not a bad investment.
Take a look at the history of gold and silver. in the last 5 years gold has more than doubled and silver has more than tripled. Gasoline has tripled. Food has doubled. All of the above are better investments than the DJIA.
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