Market Projection for Next Week
If you look at the track record of market behavior around this time of year, the recent rally represents the trend upward the last week of November. Also, we had just had a large downtrend, allowing for a large rally. We will likely see a down week of -500 points or more unless some major good news comes out, like the recent statement of Treasury Chairman Paulson to make a massive capital infusion which almost immediately lowered Mortgage rates. The day that this was announced the market was basically flat. This is because the market was due for a downturn to balance out some of the rally it had just experienced. When Paulson made this massively bullish news, it balanced out the activity for the day and left the market essentially flat.
The only good news the market has to rely upon is the Paulson statement. This could flatten out the market this week, dampening the return to the bear market trend.
Some ETF’s I will be watching to make gains in the mid to long term:
SKF (Ultrashort Financials)- The Financials have rallied heavily. They sill maintain a huge amount of unrecorded losses associated with CDS (Credit Default Swaps).
USO (US Oil)- Oil is a commodity. It has faced massive declines from the decreased demand and the recent strength of the dollar. The reasons this is likely to see gains are due to:
-OPEC decreasing supply
-Declines in the Dollar
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