Archive for the ‘diversification’ tag
Projection for 11-21-2008: Bear Market Rally. Equity is dead: Capital Structure.
Bear Market Rally
I’m still bearish in the mid to long term, but tomorrow could show us a bear market rally, which should be sold into on its highs. After taking profits turn around and start shorting again.
Overall we still have a ways to go before any consideration should be taken for the equity market.
Risk Aversion, Complacency, Mutual Funds, and the Status Quo market.
There is no such thing as risk free. There is “low”, “moderate”and “high” risk. These are just based on our experience of what we have seen to be the case thus far. In this sense, if we continue to maintain the same risk scenarios they become outdated. This is the case RIGHT NOW such as the case of Indy Mac. Also, what seemed to be such a guarantee is now up to question with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Risk aversion is a different ball game now. Risk can never totally be averted, just hypothesized at aversion. We can get close to guessing at risk free but we will never achieve that. There are no guarantees. The sun has risen and set for as long as we know and will know, but it won’t in a few billion years.
